With students in streets, Charest faces tough slog with PQ in polls

*** Please note: ThreeHundredEight will be on hiatus for the rest of the week. ***

Dogged by student strikes and the looming inquiry into construction-industry corruption, Jean Charest is nevertheless in a neck-and-neck battle with the Parti Québécois as the remaining lifespan of his government can be counted in months.

According to ThreeHundredEight.com’s seat and vote projection model, the Parti Québécois currently holds a narrow lead over the Quebec Liberals with 33.1 per cent to 32 per cent support. While this represents a significant gain for both parties since the end of February, with the PQ picking up 3.7 points and the Liberals three, it is a far closer race than was recorded by the polls only a few weeks ago.

You can read the rest of the article on The Globe and Mail website here.

I had been intending to maintain detailed seat and vote projections for Quebec as I had done with Alberta, but it does not appear very likely that the province will be going to the polls until the fall at least.

Instead, we have two by-elections to look forward to. LaFontaine should be rather straight-forward, but it will be interesting to see if the Liberal vote drops. Argenteuil will be far more interesting, though it is still a relatively safe Liberal seat. However, the CAQ is running Mario Laframboise, a former Bloc MP from the region, and the ADQ finished only eight points behind the Liberals in the 2007 election. So, François Legault could pull off an upset in Argenteuil, and if he does it will give us an indication that the CAQ is far from a sinking ship.

Why the NDP's strategy might be working

When Thomas Mulcair became leader of the NDP, he promised a structured opposition that could take on the Conservative government. His strategy appears to be working.

Poll after poll has put the New Democrats neck-and-neck or ahead of the Conservatives, as yesterday’s Harris-Decima poll indicated. That survey pegged NDP support at 34 per cent, four points up on the Conservatives.

While some of this can be attributed to the honeymoon period that normally comes after a party selects a new leader, there might be more to the NDP’s good fortune.

Undoubtedly, Mulcair is benefiting from a series of bad headlines for the Conservatives. While any one of these stories might not have been enough to seriously dent the Tories’ support, the cumulative effect appears to have been quite damaging.

But on the other side of the aisle, the New Democrats are doing some of the right things. 

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

There was some talk on last night's At Issue panel about Thomas Mulcair's "Dutch Disease" comments and, as I've spelled out in my article which I wrote yesterday morning, I fall more on Chantal Hébert's side of the argument (usually the best place to be). Yes, these kinds of comments that criticize how the oil sands are being developed will win Mulcair no friends in certain parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan, but those people were unlikely to have been considering a vote for the New Democrats anyway.

By framing the debate on the oil sands as an economic one, it puts the NDP on the same playing field as the Conservatives. Whether or not Mulcair's argument is sound is another question entirely, but it is far easier to dismiss environmental arguments in favour of economic prosperity. Stéphane Dion's "Green Shift" is a quick-and-easy example of that.

Bruce Anderson suggested that this tactic polarizes the debate and pits region against region, but here again this is an example of the New Democrats meeting the Conservatives on the same level. Rather than having the two parties talk past each other, they are instead arguing with one another on the same terms. Idealism is great for a protest party, but it is not a vote winner. It can be argued that the Liberals took on the mantle of a protest party in the 2011 federal election more than the NDP did, and they were shunted off to third place as a result. Cynical it might be, but there are politics as they should be and then there are politics as they are. Mulcair's strategy is working so far, I would submit, because he is playing the game.

NDP leads, could win plurality of seats

After last week's teaser, Harris-Decima has completed and released the full results of their regular two-week survey. It increases the NDP lead by one (the last week must have been a good one for them) and points to the New Democrats being capable - for the first time, I believe - of winning the most seats in the House all on their own.

Since this poll incorporates the data from Harris-Decima's release last week, it is more instructive to compare the results to their last full two-week survey of Mar. 22 to Apr. 2.

The New Democrats are up two points since then to 34%, while the Conservatives have dropped four points to 30%.

The Liberals are up one to 20%, while the Greens are unchanged at 8% support.

As you can see, the weighted averages of all polls now give the New Democrats an outright lead of 33.4% to 32.4% for the Conservatives.

Harris-Decima shows a remarkably close race in Ontario, with the three parties virtually tied. The Tories are down nine points since the end of March and beginning of April to only 32%, trailed closely by the NDP at 31% (+5) and the Liberals at 28% (+4).

Things are stable in Quebec, with the NDP down one point to 38% and the Bloc Québécois up three points to 27%. The Liberals are unchanged at 14%, while the Conservatives are down two to 12%.

The NDP leads in British Columbia with 39% (-5) and Atlantic Canada with 44% (+8), while they trail in second with 39% (+5) in the Prairies and 17% (-2) in Alberta.

The Conservatives are ahead in Alberta (55%, +1) and the Prairies (43%, -2), and are second in British Columbia with 32% (+2). The Liberals hold second in Atlantic Canada with 30% support, unchanged.

The seat projection gives the New Democrats the plurality of seats for, if I am not mistaken, the first time here on ThreeHundredEight. It is likely the first time since at least the late 1980s, in that brief period where Ed Broadbent was on top.

With Harris-Decima's numbers, the New Democrats would win 128 seats, with the Conservatives winning 112 and the Liberals 58. The Bloc Québécois would win nine seats and the Greens one.

The NDP wins 17 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, 11 in the Prairies, 27 in Ontario, 55 in Quebec, 16 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the North. In the 338-seat House, they would likely win 137 seats (a decrease in share from 41.6% to 40.5%).

The Conservatives win 15 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 16 in the Prairies, 47 in Ontario, four in Quebec, two in Atlantic Canada, and one in the North. In the expanded House, their share would likely increase from 36.4% of all seats to 37.9%, or 128.

The Liberals win three seats in British Columbia, one in the Prairies, 32 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, 14 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the North. They would likely win 62 seats with the new boundaries.

Harris-Decima lays out the path to a Mulcair victory - the NDP continuing its dominance of Quebec and winning British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, while increasing their representation in the Prairies and Ontario. But the New Democrats actually need the Liberals in Ontario, as in this case it is that party that unseats a lot of Conservatives and gives the plurality of seats nationwide to the NDP.

The Conservatives are certainly in trouble if the race in Ontario becomes as close as this. They have faltered greatly in Atlantic Canada to the benefit of the NDP, and are trailing in British Columbia in almost every poll. That is a somewhat varied clientele for them to have to win back, especially when you add Saskatchewan to the mix.

But has Thomas Mulcair's honeymoon hit its peak? Have Stephen Harper's troubles caused his party to hit rock-bottom, and the only way to go now is up? Or is this what we can expect for the next three years, the two parties vying for top spot in the mid-30s, much like the Liberals and Conservatives did for most of the minority era? Interesting times.

April 2012 Federal Poll Averages

A month of tremendous change, April saw the New Democrats storming from a distant second to a narrow first. Thomas Mulcair may be in the midst of a honeymoon, but it is quite the honeymoon for the party - particularly in Quebec. Since the monthly federal averages were first calculated in January 2009, the New Democrats in April 2012 put up their best results federally and in British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada.

During the month of April, 15,175 Canadians were surveyed in six national polls and five provincial polls (in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec).

The New Democrats led in April with an average of 33.3% support, a gain of 4.1 points since March. That is their best result on record, surpassing the 32% the party scored in September, shortly after Jack Layton's death.

The Conservatives trailed with 33.2%, down 1.7 points. They hit 33% in February, and were at or below that mark for most of 2011.

The Liberals were down 1.3 points to 20.6%, their lowest result since September, while the Bloc Québécois was down 0.7 points to 6.2% nationally and the Greens 0.1 point to 5.6%.

The most significant shift in support has taken place in Quebec, where Mulcair's leadership win has had the greatest effect. The New Democrats were up a massive 12.8 points (and this in a total sample of 5,651 Quebecers) to 43%, putting them back to where they were in the May 2011 election and in the months just following Layton's passing. It is an incredible rebound for the party.

Every other party has suffered as a result. The Bloc Québécois dropped 6.9 points to 22%, their lowest result since October. This has ended five months of steady increase during the NDP leadership race. The Liberals were down 4.4 points to 15.6%, their lowest result since November, while the Conservatives were down 1.2 points to only 14.3% support, their worst result since June 2009. The Greens were down 0.4 points to 3.5%.

Atlantic Canada also saw a great deal of change, with the New Democrats picking up 7.3 points to reach 40% support, their best result on record (their previous best had been 36% in September). The Liberals trailed with 28.2%, a gain of 1.6 points, but a gap of this size between first and second has not existed in the region since August 2010. The Conservatives were down 6.6 points to 26.7%, their lowest result since that month. The Greens were down 0.5 points to 4.4%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives dropped 1.2 points to 56%, still well ahead of the NDP (up 1.4 points to 20.5%). The Liberals, however, jumped 3.7 points to 16.2%, giving them their best result since March 2011. The Greens were down 0.8 points to 4.7%.

The only Conservative gain since last month took place in Ontario, where the party averaged 38% support, up 0.2 points. The New Democrats surged into second with a gain of 2.2 points, putting them at 29% and their highest result on record. The Liberals dropped to third with a 2.3-point decrease to 25.7%, their worst result since September and their third consecutive month of decline. The Greens were up 0.2 points to 6%.

In British Columbia, the New Democrats have opened up their widest lead on the Conservatives since at least January 2009, picking up two points to hit 38.8% support. The Conservatives, who have been dropping or stagnant for six months now, slipped 1.3 points to 34.2% in the province. The Liberals were down 0.9 points to 16.3% (a third month of decline) while the Greens were unchanged at 8.7%. They have held around that level of support for four months.

Finally, the Prairies were the most stable region, with the Conservatives slipping only 1.1 points to 42.6%. The NDP were up 0.4 points to 34.4%, a third consecutive month of stability at their high of 34%-35%. The Liberals were up a point to 16.9%, while the Greens were down 0.9 points to 4.9%.

Though the New Democrats hold the narrowest of leads federally, they nevertheless trail the Conservatives in the seat projection on these numbers. An April election would have delivered 136 seats to the Conservatives, a drop of eight since March. The New Democrats would have won 120 seats, a huge gain of 42 seats since last month's projection, while the Liberals would be down 11 seats to 47. The Bloc Québécois, projected to be able to win 27 seats in March, wins only four with these numbers, while the Greens hold on to their one.

The Conservatives win 16 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 18 in the Prairies, 61 in Ontario, four in Quebec, nine in Atlantic Canada, and one in the North.

The New Democrats win 16 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, seven in the Prairies, 25 in Ontario, 60 in Quebec, 10 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the North.

The Liberals win three seats in British Columbia, three in the Prairies, 20 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, 13 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the North.

In the expanded 338-seat House, the Conservatives would likely win 154 seats to 129 for the NDP and 50 for the Liberals.

The NDP and Liberals could combine for a majority larger than the one the Tories currently enjoy, and with a combined 53.9% support it would be difficult to question the legitimacy of such an arrangement. But for the New Democrats to come out ahead on their own, they desperately need to close the gap in Ontario. They are doing as well as can be expected in every other region. Ontario is the only hold-out.

The Conservatives have some work to do. British Columbia is slipping away and their grip on Saskatchewan is looking very weak. Add to that a few seat losses in Atlantic Canada and a narrowing (though still comfortable) gap in Ontario, and the Tories are in a difficult position. Of course, this is not unusual early in a majority mandate, but it is worth noting that the Conservatives were holding their support one year after their 2008 election win. Some might say that is due to the minority situation forcing the Conservatives to be in constant seduction mode, but it is difficult to argue that the Tories have toned down their campaigning machine.

And for the Liberals, they are in deep trouble. A new leader might right the ship, but that is the mirage the party has been chasing for almost a decade. They are below 17% support in the West, have fallen to third in Ontario, are 12 points behind in Atlantic Canada, and are only holding on to their Montreal Island seats in Quebec. They might be playing the long game, and 2015 is indeed a long time away, but unless Mulcair really trips up it is hard to imagine a comeback in three years' time.

New Democrats solid in B.C.

The NDP wave has already swept across Quebec, and B.C. may be the next province to succumb to the Orange Crush.

The New Democrats have a long history in B.C., having formed the government on several occasions. But the federal NDP has not won B.C. since 1988, when the party took 37 per cent of the vote under Ed Broadbent. Though their lead over the Progressive Conservatives was only two points, it was enough to give the party 19 of the 32 seats in the province.

The NDP also won the popular vote in B.C. in 1962, 1965 and 1972. But the party's drought in the province now stands at 24 years. Will it end in 2015?

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

But let's here take a look at the latest Forum Research poll on the provincial voting intentions of British Columbians.

Forum Research was last in the field on Apr. 11, shortly before the two by-election victories by the New Democrats in B.C. Liberal ridings.

Since that poll, the B.C. New Democrats have picked up two points and now lead with 48% support, their highest result in any poll since October 2010.

The B.C. Liberals are unchanged at 23% while the B.C. Conservatives are down four points to 19%. The Greens are steady at 8% support.

The Conservatives did worse than expected in the two by-elections, so this drop in support is not too surprising. But it is significant that even the combined vote of the Liberals and Conservatives (42%) is below that of the New Democrats. In the Apr. 11 poll, the NDP and the Liberals/Conservatives each had 46% support apiece.

The NDP has held relatively steady in Vancouver-Lower Mainland with 47% (+2) and 42% (-1) in the Interior/North. They are up six points on Vancouver Island to 56%.

The Liberals are up two points in Vancouver-Lower Mainland to 25% and seven points in the Interior/North to 27%, but are down six points to 16% on Vancouver Island.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, are down four to 20% in Vancouver-Lower Mainland and nine in the Interior/North to 15%, but are unchanged at 19% on Vancouver Island.

One of the problems that the Conservatives had in the two by-elections was getting their vote out - compared to the well-oiled Liberal machine the Conservative rookies were outmatched. Organization isn't everything, though, with the NDP in Quebec being a prime example. But what the NDP in Quebec had that the Conservatives in BC do not is voter enthusiasm.

The Forum poll shows that 88% of NDP voters are very or somewhat enthusiastic about casting their ballot for the NDP in the next election, a stellar result. The Liberals, however, register only 70% while the Conservatives muster only 67%. If anything, that means the NDP could be expected to do even better than 48% if an election had been held on May 2.

The seat result is, with a 25-point lead, a landslide for the NDP. They win 73 seats out of the 85 in the legislature, with the B.C. Liberals forming a paltry opposition of seven seats. The Conservatives and two independents split the remaining five.

But despite the NDP sweep and horrible numbers for the Liberals, Christy Clark gets a higher approval rating among her voters than either Adrian Dix or John Cummins: 69% to 67% for Dix and 60% for Cummins. Though with so little support, one might expect the Liberals to be down to their diehards.

Province wide, Clark has the worst approval rating spread. She scores 25% approval to 62% disapproval, a net result of -37. Cummins scores a lower approval rating (21%), but is only a net -20 as his disapproval is at 41%. Dix has an approval rating of 39%, with 31% disapproving.

Take out the "Don't Knows", and Dix has an approval rating of 56% to 34% for Cummins and only 29% for Clark. That shows the real gap between Dix and the other two leaders.

The B.C. Liberals are considering a name change, but it doesn't seem likely that will save them. Only 16% of British Columbians think they should change their name and only 23% of Liberal supporters. Shocking, really, that a change of name isn't a cure-all.