Projection: 140 CPC, 92 LPC, 49 BQ, 27 NDP

Only one poll this week, so no major changes. But new polls replace old polls, and the weight of new polls makes old polls less important, so every little bit makes a difference.The Conservatives gain one seat and are now at 140. The Liberals lose one and are now at 92. The Bloc and NDP remain steady at 49 and 27 seats, respectively. Very little movement in the popular vote, as the Liberals lose only 0.1 points and the Greens gain 0.1 points.

A mixed update for the Conservatives, who lose 0.2 points in Alberta and the Prairies and 0.1 points in British Columbia. They gain 0.2 points in Quebec and Atlantic Canada and 0.1 points in the North. They also gain a seat in Ontario, though they remain stuck at 39.1%.

The Liberals are down a little bit everywhere except in Alberta. They're down 0.3 points in Quebec, 0.2 points in the North and the Prairies, and 0.1 points in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Their seat loss comes in Ontario.

The NDP is either steady or making gains. Their support hasn't changed in Alberta, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. They've made a gain of 0.3 points in the Prairies and 0.1 points in the North and British Columbia.

The Bloc is unchanged. The Greens make gains of 0.3 points in Quebec, 0.2 points in the Prairies and Alberta, and 0.1 points in Ontario and British Columbia.

Things seem to be solidifying at their current level, which is getting closer and closer to the 2008 result. The Liberals have seemed to hit their floor, the Conservatives are falling back from their highs, and the NDP is clawing its way back up to 2008 levels.

New Ekos Poll: 10-pt Conservative Lead

The latest EKOS poll is available online (thanks DL for pointing it out), and has some interesting results.Nationally, this represents a loss of 0.8 points for the Conservatives and 0.2 points for the Liberals compared to last week's EKOS poll. We can certainly call the Liberal support steady, and the Conservative loss is no biggie, but this marks a steady decline of the Tory vote from the dizzying highs of early October.

In fact, I love this poll. It vindicates my projection, as I'm sure many of you saw the Conservatives polling at 40% to 41% and wondered why I was still at around 35%. The projection cancels out the sort of momentary extremes the Conservatives were riding on for a few weeks.

We also see an NDP gain of 0.5 points from EKOS's last poll. In general, this is a very good poll for them.

It is not a very good poll for the Conservatives, leaving aside their 10-point lead. They're down five points in British Columbia, five in Alberta, five in the Prairies, and one in Ontario. That's made up by gains of two points in Quebec and four points in Atlantic Canada. Indeed, in that region of the country the Tories are polling extraordinarily well: 36.5%.

The silver lining for the Liberals in this poll is that the bleeding has stopped. They're up four points in British Columbia, but down four in the Prairies and three in Quebec. They're steady in Ontario, Alberta, and Atlantic Canada. The Quebec result, putting them in third, is certainly worrisome. But the by-election results in the province sort of predicted this drop.

For the NDP, they haven't lost any ground anywhere. They are holding fast, though, in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. But they're up two points in Alberta and, most significantly, eight in the Prairies.

The Bloc is down two points, which should come as no surprise after the disappointing by-election result in the Bas-St-Laurent.

About 18% of respondents were undecided, well within the norm.

One of the demographic results that explains the strong NDP showing is in the under-25 age group. There, the NDP is first with 23.9%, followed by the Liberals at 23.8% and the Conservatives at 22.7%.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 143
Liberals - 84
Bloc Quebecois - 49
New Democrats - 32

So, almost identical to the 2008 election result. There are some differences, however.

The Conservatives take 68 seats in the West (including the North), 54 in Ontario, 10 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada. That's compared to the 2008 result of 72 in the West, 51 in Ontario, 10 in Quebec, and 10 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals take 12 seats in the West, 40 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 16 in Atlantic Canada. The 2008 breakdown was 8-38-14-17.

The New Democrats win 13 seats out West (compared to 15 last year), 12 in Ontario (rather than 17), two in Quebec (rather than one), and five in Atlantic Canada (instead of four).

The biggest thing to take from this poll is that we're back to square one, back to October 2008. Which means no one has a reason to go to an election.

The ADQ Self-Destructs

Gilles Taillon, leader of the Action démocratique du Québec, has announced he will be stepping down as leader. This is only the latest in a series of missteps and mistakes that have brought the once fledgling provincial party to the brink of destruction.

A brief run down. In 2007, Mario Dumont's ADQ won 41 seats and became the official opposition, only a handful of MNAs away from forming government. Over the next year, Dumont mishandled several issues and the inexperience of his new MNAs became clear. In the 2008 election, the party dropped to 16% and 7 seats, and Mario Dumont announced he would be stepping down as leader.

A leadership race was then called, with Gilles Taillon (who did not win in his riding) and Éric Caire (who did) becoming the clear front-runners. The leadership race was ugly, with each side seemingly forgetting that they'd have to work together if either of them had won.

Gilles Taillon then won the race, which was held only a few weeks ago, by two votes. The turnout of the telephone voting was very low, and in the end it was learned that Infoman (a Quebec comedian) had gotten an ADQ membership under the name of Omar Bongo and cast his vote for Taillon. That brought his true win down to one vote.

Then, after being snubbed by Taillon, Caire and his friend Marc Picard left the party to sit as independents in the National Assembly. That brought the ADQ caucus from 6 to 4 MNAs. A few days later, the president of the party (responsible for the non-partisan running of the leadership race) stepped down when it was learned he had donated to Taillon's leadership campaign.

To add insult to injury, Janvier Grondin, long-time ADQ MNA and 11th-hour supporter of Taillon, as come out to say that he regrets having thrown his support behind Taillon.

Now, Taillon has stepped down as leader, seemingly at the request of his caucus. The leadership race divided the party in two, and now the half that supported Taillon is divided as well. He has said he will stay on as leader until a new one is found, but that poses a few problems. The party can't afford a leadership race, and Caire has said he wouldn't run to lead the party. There are few potential replacements, and the most likely replacement, MNA Gerard Deltell, has been making nice with the provincial Liberals and even attended an event with Jean Charest.

Lastly, Taillon threw out the bombshell that he has found irregularities in the party's finances dating back to 2003, which he will look into. The Liberals and PQ are starting to circle the two new independents and the 4 ADQ MNAs to see if they won't come over to their sides. Recent polls put the party at around 6% to 8%, tied with the Parti Vert and Quebec Solidaire.

The Conservatives were smart enough to jump ship not too long ago, and have since reconciled with the provincial Liberals under Charest. This is good news for them, as had Harper tied his Quebec star too tightly to Mario Dumont and the ADQ, he wouldn't have won the Bas-St-Laurent by-election last night.

Saskatchewan Provincial Poll

Thanks to commenter Barcs for pointing out this Saskatchewan provincial poll to me. It was taken between October 29 and November 2, involving 801 Saskatchewanians. The result (portioning out the undecideds and non-respondents):

Saskatchewan Party - 61.7%
New Democrats - 21.2%
Greens - 5.2%
Liberals - 3.9%

In the 2007 provincial election, the Saskatchewan Party took 50.9% of the vote, so they've made some gains. The NDP took 37.2%, so that is a big loss for them. The Liberals had 9.4%, so that is also a big loss. There isn't any major regional variation, except in Regina where the NDP is more competitive. The Saskatchewan Party is more or less the provincial version of the Conservatives, so while not critical or even all that indicative, it is a good sign for the Tories. Again, the provincial/federal divide is significant as it is in all provinces, but that is certainly not good news for the federal NDP and Liberals.

To give you an idea of how it compares, here are the 2008 election results in Saskatchewan:

Conservatives - 53.7%
New Democrats - 25.6%
Liberals - 14.9%
Greens - 5.6%

I enjoy these provincial polls, since we don't see a lot of them. When the next federal election finally happens, I intend to then look at the next likely provincial election and try to project that, as well as keeping a watch over the federal scene.

By-Election Coverage

00:37 - It is getting too late to wait for the last eight polls in New Westminster-Coquitlam, so I'm calling it now. It will be kept for the NDP, and Fin Donnelly will become the newest NDP MP. They're back up to 37 in the House of Commons. This race turned out to be far less close than everyone assumed. As of writing, the NDP is at 50% followed by the Tories at 36%, the Liberals at 10%, and the Greens at 4%. But the voting turnout was low, about 30%. The Liberals did as well as they did last year, but that is not exactly a positive thing considering British Columbia appears to be one of the regions they can make some gains. The Conservatives saw a slight dip, which fits in with how they're doing in the province. But the NDP gain of almost ten points is very significant. I would not be surprised if we see an NDP bump in the polls in British Columbia soon.

That does it for tonight. Good night!

00:20 - So, the Conservatives pull off the only upset tonight, taking Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup from the Bloc. But, remember, this is right next to the Tory block of seats in and around Quebec City, so this doesn't represent a breakthrough into a new region of the province. It does show, however, that the Conservative brand is still a winner in this part of Quebec. That certainly bodes well for the future. The Tories were written off in Quebec only a few months ago, they're now back in it. They take the riding with 43%, 12-points more than the election. The Bloc drops eight points to 38%, while the Liberals drop two to 13% and the NDP drops one to 5%. These two parties really weren't in the race. But then again, they weren't in the race last year either. Turnout was 37%, as good as anywhere else, showing that "voter fatigue" doesn't really exist if something is at stake.

We're now just waiting on New Westminster-Coquitlam. Nine polls left, and it looks like an NDP win.

00:14 - So, all the polls from Hochelaga are now in. Daniel Paillé will be the next Bloc MP, putting them up to 48 total in the House of Commons. He won pretty easily with 51%. The NDP finished a strong second with 20%. The Liberals were behind with 14%, and the Conservatives were at 10%. The only real movement was between the Liberals and the NDP, and the NDP seems to have taken about 1/3 of Liberal voters in the riding. The turnout was only 22%, very low. That's usually the case when the result is a foregone conclusion.

23:41 - Donnelly still leads, now by 1,800 votes. With 110 out of 225 polls reporting, that looks like the NDP will hold on to the seat. Apparently, people in the riding were aware of the race between the CPC and the NDP, as the Liberals had only 9% support. The Conservatives lead in Montmagny with 1,100 votes. With only 17 polls left, this looks like a Tory pick-up. Two more seats for them, putting them up to 145. The Bloc will be at 48 and the NDP will be at 37 tomorrow.

23:18 - So, the gap is starting to narrow between the Conservatives and the NDP in NWC, but Fin Donnelly still holds an 800-vote lead over Diana Dilworth. In MLKRDP, Généreux is up to about a 900-vote lead, with 220 out of 257 polls reporting. Unless the remaining polling boxes are from Bloc-friendly parts of the riding, this just might be the night's upset. But, as I explained before, this riding does fit the profile of a Conservative Quebec riding, so I wouldn't call this a "game changer".

23:05 - Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley is settled. Scott Armstrong will be the new Conservative MP for the riding. He earned 46% of the vote, followed by the NDP at 26%, the Liberals at 21%, and the Greens at 3%. The Christian Heritage Party managed 776 votes and 3% as well. The turnout was 36%, not horrible for a by-election. This result is good for the Tories, obviously. The NDP can be happy with placing second, but they had built it up to be a little more of a race than it was. The Liberals should be disappointed considering Atlantic Canada is one of their better regions, but 21% isn't disastrous.

We have 20 polls reporting (of 225) from New Westminster, and the NDP is still in the lead, 52% to 36%. Montmagny has 205 of 257 polls report, and the lead is 720 votes.

22:48 - Not much change, at all!

22:34 - Only three polls reporting, but a good beginning for the NDP in New Westminster, up about 60 votes, 55% to 34%.

Bernard Généreux has opened up a 450 vote lead on Bloc candidate Nancy Gagnon, 42% to 39%, in Montmagny.

22:18 - Still nothing from British Columbia, but the Bloc is doing better in Hochelaga and are up to 52% with 50 of 219 polls reporting. The NDP's vote increase isn't exactly significant, neither is the Liberal drop, for a by-election.

In Montmagny, it is still a dead-heat, 40% apiece, with 100 of 257 polls reporting. Neither the Liberals nor the NDP have moved much at all.

In Nova Scotia, the Tories got about 54% of Casey's vote, compared to 20% for the NDP and 17% for the Liberals. While the NDP is doing well to be in second, the Liberals aren't as out of it as everyone assumed they'd be.

New Westminster is still up in the air, but Montmagny is turning out to be the race to watch.

22:05 - First results are in, and the Bloc is well ahead in Hochelaga. The NDP has increased their vote to 21%, but it is not a close race. The Liberals drop from 21% to 14%.

In Nova Scotia, the Conservatives have re-earned the Casey vote. They lead the NDP 46% to 26%. The Liberals are at 21%.

The race is very close in Montmagny, tied at 39% as of right now. The Liberals maintained their vote, however.

No results from British Columbia, which isn't a surprise, considering the polls just closed.

No Comments Until Tonight

Because of the by-elections and a mandated blackout of information until the polls close, I've shut down the comments for now to avoid any trouble. They will be back up once the polls close.

Check back here at 10:00 PM Eastern for results and reaction.

By-Elections Today

In British Columbia, Quebec, and Nova Scotia, by-elections are being held today. If you live in any of these ridings, be sure to vote.

Here are some predictions (not projections).

New Westminster-Coquitlam

This Vancouver suburban riding was held by Dawn Black of the NDP. She had won this riding by three points and about 1,500 votes over Conservative candidate Yonah Martin. This is really a race between the NDP and the Conservatives. The former have been trying to tie the provincial government's HST plan to the federal Conservatives, while the Conservatives are fighting hard to win back this riding. The Liberals and Greens are not in the race. The NDP has been relatively stable in BC of late, but are actually under-performing from their 2008 result. The Conservatives are also under-performing, but have some positive momentum. That, coupled with the Tories being in government, make me lean towards the Conservatives. But this is a 60-40 chance.

Hochelaga

Formerly held by Réal Ménard of the Bloc Quebecois, this is a sovereigntist stronghold. He had almost 23,000 votes and 50% in the last election. His closest competitor was Liberal Diane Dicaire, who had 21% and 9,000 votes. Daniel Paillé is going to try to keep the riding for the Bloc. He's a "star" candidate, and the Bloc has been pushing hard to elect him. The NDP has also been pushing hard to elect their Jean-Claude Rocheleau, who had 14% in the 2008 election. The media is making this out to be a race where the Liberals will finish third, but the NDP's momentum in Quebec isn't much better than the Liberals'. This is a 95% chance of a Bloc win, but I'd say it is 50-50 as to whether the Liberals or the NDP will finish second.

Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup

This riding has been voting a lot of late, five times over the last year. They had a federal election, then a provincial election, then a provincial by-election, then municipal elections, and now a federal by-election. This riding has been Bloc since 1993, and Paul Crête won it last year with 46% and 20,500 votes. The Tories were second with 31% and 13,600 votes. Nancy Gagnon is up for the Bloc, while Bernard Généreux, former mayor of La Pocatière, is up for the Tories. This is supposed to be a close race, but the Bloc sent 20 of their MPs to the riding to help out over the weekend. I've also heard that outside of La Pocatière the Conservative candidate is having trouble. The Conservatives do have some positive momentum in the province, but it has only gotten them back up to 2008 levels. The Bloc is steady. Some people have called a Conservative win here a "game changer", but it actually fits the profile of a Tory Quebec riding, as the adjacent riding is Lévis-Bellechasse, held by the Conservatives. Nevertheless, this is likely to be a Bloc win. I'd give it about a 75% chance.

Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Vallet

This riding was left vacant after Bill Casey left the Conservative Party and won as an independent. They elected him with a huge 69% majority with 27,000 votes. The Conservatives and NDP have been fighting for this riding, but it has a very blue history. The only way the NDP has a chance is if Casey loyalists are still displeased at the Tories for booting him out of caucus. I'd say that isn't enough of a possibility to make this anything but a Tory win. Say, 80-20.

So, that makes two Conservative wins and two Bloc wins, putting them up to 145 and 49 seats, respectively. We'll find out what actually happens tonight!

So, again, if you live in any of these ridings, GO VOTE!