New AR Poll: 15-pt Conservative Lead

Angus-Reid has a new poll out. It shows a massive Conservative lead.So, at 38% the Conservatives aren't exactly at an all-time high, but that is still a good result. It is, however, two points down from Angus-Reid's last poll at the end of October. The big result from this poll, though, is that the Liberals are at a gruesome 23%, down three points from the last poll. At 23%, the Liberals would be well below Stéphane Dion's sorry 2008 performance.

Surprisingly, the NDP isn't the net beneficiary from the slip of the two major parties. They remain steady at 17%. The Greens pick up three points and the Bloc picks up two.

Regionally, the Conservatives are doing well everywhere except Quebec. The numbers out West are just fine, while the 43% in Ontario is terrific. The 33% in Atlantic Canada is good (could be better), but the 19% in Quebec is troublesome. That is what kept the party below 40% in this poll.

The Liberals have to be worried everywhere. Alberta's result is fine, but the BC and Prairie results mean few seats. The Ontario result is absolutely horrendous, while Quebec's 19% would put them at historic lows. The 33% in Atlantic Canada isn't even very good.

The NDP is doing alright in several regions, but they should really be taking advantage of the Liberal woes. At 25% in BC and 27% in the Prairies, the NDP is competitive but not poised for any gains. The 15% in Ontario would result in some losses, while the 29% in Atlantic Canada won't see them gain any seats either. The 14% in Quebec, though, is good.

The Bloc's 42% in Quebec is a very good result, while the Greens are doing relatively well everywhere except in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada. At 12% in BC, though, Elizabeth May isn't close to getting elected.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 157
Liberals - 68
Bloc Quebecois - 53
New Democrats - 30

So, with the right opposition numbers, a majority below 40% is possible. The Conservatives take 75 seats in the West and North, 65 in Ontario, 8 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals, at only 68 seats, would barely form the Official Opposition. They take 9 seats in the West and North, 29 in Ontario, 13 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada.

The NDP didn't do well enough in the regions they need to, and so take only 11 seats out West, 12 in Ontario, 1 in Quebec, and 6 in Atlantic Canada.

Peter Donolo could not be starting his job from anywhere lower. This is a horrible, horrible poll for the Liberals. The Conservatives can be happy with their own result, but less so about Quebec. The NDP must be wondering why they can't get some traction and overtake the Liberals, while the Bloc should be pleasantly surprised.

So, we're still going to be getting polls now and then. I think I will no longer update the projection at a set day of the week, and instead update as time and polling frequency permits.

Gun Control Poll from EKOS

EKOS, as part of their "viewer question" series of polls, has a new one out asking people about the long gun registry and gun ownership.

In general, Canadians give a slight edge to banning the long gun registry (but there is a huge "don't know" group), but are also in favour of banning gun ownership in its entirety and banning gun ownership in urban areas.

But looking behind the numbers, we get an idea of party support between November 11 and November 17. EKOS asked respondents who they would vote for in addition to how they felt about guns in order to get an idea of how particular party supporters feel about gun ownership and the long gun registry. Using those numbers from a pool of 2,517 decided voters, we get:

Conservatives - 38.1%
Liberals - 26.6%
New Democrats - 14.5%
Greens - 10.6%
Bloc Quebecois - 10.3%

Now, take those numbers with a grain of salt, as I don't believe EKOS weighted the regional results the same they do for a normal national poll.

Anyway, as to the actual topic, we find that the supporters of the four opposition parties are far closer to each other than they are to the Conservatives.

On abolishing the long gun registry, 56% of Conservatives saw it should be, while only 20% say it shouldn't. The next highest supporters of abolishing the registry are NDP supporters at 35% (29% opposed), then the Greens at 29% (32% opposed), the Liberals at 27% (47% opposed), and the Bloc (20% to 47%). I find it surprising that NDP supporters are more for abolishing the registry than they are against it.

One other thing to look at is the undecided group. Among them, 33% are for abolishing and 25% are against. What does that mean? Undecideds are more in line with the NDP then either the Liberals or the Conservatives - at least on this issue.

Outlawing guns in urban areas gets a lot of support, even from Conservatives (51% to 38% opposed). It gets highest support among Liberals (76% to 18% opposed) and Bloc Quebecois supporters (74% to 21% opposed). NDP and Green supporters see eye to eye on this issue, with 67% and 66%, respectively, for outlawing guns in urban areas.

Undecideds, at 61% for and 25% against, are somewhere in between. It is interesting to note that on gun control issues, the Conservatives and the Liberals (or at least their supporters) are diametrically opposed.

As for outlawing guns in their entirety, Liberals and Bloc voters are most for the idea (67% and 66% to 33% and 34%, respectively). NDP and Green supporters are also in favour (58% and 54% to 42% and 46%, respectively). Here again, Conservative supporters are alone on the issue, with 38% in favour of outlawing guns and 62% against. Undecideds are split down the middle, 54% to 46%.

So, apparently, on gun control the argument is between the Tories and everyone else.

EKOS Schedule Change

As reported here, EKOS will be changing their schedule of the release of polls. Rather than reporting on the national voting intention every week, they will be reporting every second week, but with larger sample sizes. They'll also be reporting on questions requested by CBC viewers, which could be interesting some of the time.

Unfortunately, since this seems tied to CBC News Network's Power and Politics, I imagine that in the future the info won't be released until the end of whatever day they're released on.

So, this reduces what is already becoming a thin roster of active pollsters. The larger sample sizes, however, will be helpful.

I had based my projection-update schedule on EKOS, so I'm not sure what to do at this point. I'll probably continue to update at the end of every week, but there was only one Nanos poll released over the last week so I'm not sure if it is worth it.

Thoughts?

Nanos Ontario Provincial Poll

Nanos has a provincial poll for Ontario out, taken between October 24 and October 25 and involved 503 Ontarians. The result:

Liberals - 37%
Progressive Conservatives - 35%
New Democrats - 17%
Greens - 10%

This marks a significant drop for Dalton McGuinty compared to Nanos' last Ontario poll, with the PC and the Greens benefiting the most. The Liberal lead is thanks to women, who support the Liberals over the Progressive Conservatives by a margin of eight points. The Tories lead among males, 38% to 33%.

Dalton McGuinty is the best option as Premier for 27% of Ontarians, down from 42% in April. Tim Hudak is at 17%, but that is only up three points from April when Bob Runciman was the option. Andrea Horwath is the choice of 14%, up five points, while Frank de Jong is at 5%.

Interesting to see the margin has closed for the two major parties. But an election is still a few years away.

New Nanos Poll: 9.2-pt Conservative Lead

Finally, another pollster weighs in. Nanos gives similar results to Thursday's EKOS, but is better for the NDP and the Liberals.This poll represents a drop of 1.8 points for the Conservatives and 1.2 points for the Liberals. The NDP gains 1.3 points and is now at a very good 17.9%, while the Greens take 1.3 points.

Nanos is different from the other pollsters in that they don't prompt the parties, which is one of the reasons they poll lower for the Greens. Of course, considering other pollsters give the Greens 50% to 100% more than they got in the last election, Nanos is probably closer to the mark.

The regionals have goods and bads for all parties.

The Conservatives polled very well in Atlantic Canada, at 41.8%. But they were low in British Columbia. Their results in Ontario and Quebec are good, but within the norm of what we've seen lately.

The Liberals polled very well in British Columbia, and much better than they have been polling in Ontario and Quebec. But being in second place in Atlantic Canada is an issue.

The NDP polled very, very well in Ontario. Quebec is good, British Columbia is okay, and Atlantic Canada is bad.

The Bloc's 35.6% is low.

Since Nanos lumps Alberta and the Prairies together, I've used the seat projections from the last EKOS poll for those two regions. With them, we get:

Conservatives - 139
Liberals - 92
Bloc Quebecois - 47
New Democrats - 30

The Tories take 65 in the West, 52 in Ontario, 10 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals take 17 in the West, 41 in Ontario, 17 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada. Those are decent results west of the Ottawa River.

The NDP takes 13 in the West, 13 in Ontario, one in Quebec, and three in Atlantic Canada. The result out east is problematic for them.

As for who would make the best Prime Minister, Stephen Harper gets 34.8%, Michael Ignatieff gets 17.7%, and Jack Layton gets 14.9%. That is a good result for Harper, though a few points lower than September's result. It's a horrible result for Ignatieff, down six points. Layton's result is good, though still lower than his party's national result. Duceppe took 23.2% in Quebec (ahead of the others), and May took 4.5% nationally. "None of them" was favoured by 9.3%. This bumps the "Best PM" track to 30, 15, and 13 for the three leaders.

Nothing earth-shattering in this poll, but it's clear the Tories are back to their front-of-the-pack-but-minority status and the NDP is back in the game. This looks like a decent (relatively speaking) poll for the Liberals, but it actually represents losses from the last Nanos poll.

Projection: 140 CPC, 92 LPC, 49 BQ, 27 NDP

Only one poll this week, so no major changes. But new polls replace old polls, and the weight of new polls makes old polls less important, so every little bit makes a difference.The Conservatives gain one seat and are now at 140. The Liberals lose one and are now at 92. The Bloc and NDP remain steady at 49 and 27 seats, respectively. Very little movement in the popular vote, as the Liberals lose only 0.1 points and the Greens gain 0.1 points.

A mixed update for the Conservatives, who lose 0.2 points in Alberta and the Prairies and 0.1 points in British Columbia. They gain 0.2 points in Quebec and Atlantic Canada and 0.1 points in the North. They also gain a seat in Ontario, though they remain stuck at 39.1%.

The Liberals are down a little bit everywhere except in Alberta. They're down 0.3 points in Quebec, 0.2 points in the North and the Prairies, and 0.1 points in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Their seat loss comes in Ontario.

The NDP is either steady or making gains. Their support hasn't changed in Alberta, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. They've made a gain of 0.3 points in the Prairies and 0.1 points in the North and British Columbia.

The Bloc is unchanged. The Greens make gains of 0.3 points in Quebec, 0.2 points in the Prairies and Alberta, and 0.1 points in Ontario and British Columbia.

Things seem to be solidifying at their current level, which is getting closer and closer to the 2008 result. The Liberals have seemed to hit their floor, the Conservatives are falling back from their highs, and the NDP is clawing its way back up to 2008 levels.

New Ekos Poll: 10-pt Conservative Lead

The latest EKOS poll is available online (thanks DL for pointing it out), and has some interesting results.Nationally, this represents a loss of 0.8 points for the Conservatives and 0.2 points for the Liberals compared to last week's EKOS poll. We can certainly call the Liberal support steady, and the Conservative loss is no biggie, but this marks a steady decline of the Tory vote from the dizzying highs of early October.

In fact, I love this poll. It vindicates my projection, as I'm sure many of you saw the Conservatives polling at 40% to 41% and wondered why I was still at around 35%. The projection cancels out the sort of momentary extremes the Conservatives were riding on for a few weeks.

We also see an NDP gain of 0.5 points from EKOS's last poll. In general, this is a very good poll for them.

It is not a very good poll for the Conservatives, leaving aside their 10-point lead. They're down five points in British Columbia, five in Alberta, five in the Prairies, and one in Ontario. That's made up by gains of two points in Quebec and four points in Atlantic Canada. Indeed, in that region of the country the Tories are polling extraordinarily well: 36.5%.

The silver lining for the Liberals in this poll is that the bleeding has stopped. They're up four points in British Columbia, but down four in the Prairies and three in Quebec. They're steady in Ontario, Alberta, and Atlantic Canada. The Quebec result, putting them in third, is certainly worrisome. But the by-election results in the province sort of predicted this drop.

For the NDP, they haven't lost any ground anywhere. They are holding fast, though, in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. But they're up two points in Alberta and, most significantly, eight in the Prairies.

The Bloc is down two points, which should come as no surprise after the disappointing by-election result in the Bas-St-Laurent.

About 18% of respondents were undecided, well within the norm.

One of the demographic results that explains the strong NDP showing is in the under-25 age group. There, the NDP is first with 23.9%, followed by the Liberals at 23.8% and the Conservatives at 22.7%.

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 143
Liberals - 84
Bloc Quebecois - 49
New Democrats - 32

So, almost identical to the 2008 election result. There are some differences, however.

The Conservatives take 68 seats in the West (including the North), 54 in Ontario, 10 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada. That's compared to the 2008 result of 72 in the West, 51 in Ontario, 10 in Quebec, and 10 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals take 12 seats in the West, 40 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 16 in Atlantic Canada. The 2008 breakdown was 8-38-14-17.

The New Democrats win 13 seats out West (compared to 15 last year), 12 in Ontario (rather than 17), two in Quebec (rather than one), and five in Atlantic Canada (instead of four).

The biggest thing to take from this poll is that we're back to square one, back to October 2008. Which means no one has a reason to go to an election.