Projection Update: 128 CPC, 100 LPC, 51 BQ, 29 NDP

The latest projection update doesn't show much movement, but is important nevertheless.Why? With the Conservatives dropping one seat and the Liberals gaining one seat, the spread is now 28 seats. And the NDP has 29. This bumps the projection into an Unstable Conservative Minority, as only the second and fourth parties are required to out-vote the government.

The Conservatives have lost 0.3 points nationally and are down to 33.5%, while the Liberals have gained 0.1 points and are up to 29.4%. It seems that the gains and losses are slowing for these two parties. The NDP is steady at 16.2%, while the Bloc drops 0.1 point to 9.3% and the Greens gain 0.1 point to reach the psychologically significant level of 10%.

Let's look at the changes region by region.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have lost one seat and 0.1 points, down to 36%. The Liberals gain a seat and 0.2 points, and stand at 36.4%. The NDP also gains 0.1 points while the Greens lose 0.2.

In Quebec, the Bloc is down 0.1 points but still well ahead at 37.9%. The Liberals have lost 0.2 points in the province (their only loss anywhere in the country) and are down to 25.0%. The Conservatives are steady, while the NDP picks up 0.1 points and the Greens pick up 0.2 points.

British Columbia shows the most significant movement, with the Conservatives dropping half a point to 35.8%. The NDP gains 0.1 points and keeps a narrow lead over the Liberals with 25.8%. The Liberals gain 0.4 points and stand at 25.3%. The Greens are down 0.2 points in the province.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have gained 0.2 points to reach 36.9%. The Conservatives are down 0.1 points and are at 31.2%. The NDP is down 0.3 points to 24.2%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives continue to slide with a loss of 0.2 points. With 59%, however, they still have a commanding lead. The Liberals continue to impress with a gain of 0.4 points and are now at 17.6%. The NDP is down 0.3 points and the Greens are up 0.1.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives are down 0.2 points to 47.5% - still well ahead of the NDP who have lost 0.2 points and are at 23.5%. The Liberals gain 0.1 and the Greens gain 0.3.

Finally, in the North, the Conservatives drop 0.1 points.

This was a bad two weeks for the government, as they have dropped in every region of the country except Quebec, where they remained stable. A 0.5-point loss in British Columbia is very bad news for the party.

The Liberals had a good two weeks, posting large 0.4-point gains in British Columbia and Alberta. They've also opened up a tiny lead in Ontario, but their loss of ground in Quebec is troublesome.

The NDP did not have a very good time, posting minute gains in BC, Ontario, and Quebec but 0.3-point losses in Atlantic Canada and Alberta. However, unlike the Liberals and the Conservatives, the NDP is never down or up throughout the country.

The Bloc only dropped 0.1 points, which seems to be the norm. They are stuck at around 38%.

Harris-Decima Poll: Tie!

Harris-Decima has posted the results of its poll, which is now a week old.This actually shows very little change since HD's last poll, taken between February 4 and February 14. The Conservatives drop one and the Liberals gain one to tie at 31%, while the NDP remains stable at 16%. The Bloc drops two points nationally while the Greens gain two points, rising to 12%. The MOE of 2.2, however, puts all of these within the statistical noise.

Speaking of which, for regional results I will only mention variations outside of the MOE in the future.

In Ontario, the Liberals remain in the lead at 38%, with the Conservatives close on their heels at 35%. The Tories should be happy they are still putting up a fight in Ontario, because the way their vote in the West is dropping they need those seats. The NDP is struggling at 14%.

In Quebec, the Bloc drops five points to 36%, still well ahead of the Liberals at 24%. The Conservatives are weak at 16% but the NDP is strong at 12%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives hold a small lead with 32%, while the Liberals have gained seven points and are at 30%. We've been seeing a close race here poll after poll. The NDP is at 24%.

The Conservatives have dropped 10 points in Alberta and stand at 48%. The Liberals are doing well with 22%. The Prairies is as it always is, while the Liberals are way ahead in Atlantic Canada with 42% to the NDP's 27% and the Tories' 21%.

The Conservatives would still take the most seats, with 65 out West, 42 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 5 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 118.

The Liberals would stand very close to that number, with 20 seats out West, 53 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 22 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 111.

The Bloc wins 51 seats in Quebec, while the NDP takes 10 seats in the West, 11 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 5 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 28.

Like Allan Gregg says in the poll's analysis, this appears to be the new normal. Until further notice.

New EKOS Poll: 3-pt Conservative Lead

EKOS has come along with its weekly poll. As usual, it is boring. B-O-R-I-N-G.The Conservatives have lost one point and are at 32.4%. The Liberals have lost 0.9 points, and are at 29.4%. Note: the margin of error is 2 points.

The NDP is down 0.6 points and is at 15.2%. The Bloc is up 1.2 points nationally, and the Greens are up 0.1 points. "Other" is at an unnaturally high 3.1%.

In Ontario, the Liberals are doing very well at 38%, while the Conservatives are still in the game at 34.9%. The NDP is struggling at 14.3%. Any variation from EKOS's last poll were within the 3.3 MOE.

In Quebec, the Bloc has gained five points (outside of the 4.0 MOE), and is at 37.8%. The Liberals have lost five points and are not doing well at 22.1%. The only consolation is that they are ahead of the Tories, who are at 15.9%. The NDP is doing well at 12.2%.

In British Columbia - shocking. The Liberals have moved into first place! They have 28.7% compared to the Conservatives' 28.5%. The NDP is also in the logjam at 25.6%. The Greens are at 13.7% - too low. No movements were outside of the 5.1 MOE.

In Alberta, the Liberals are still flying high at 18.9%, though the Conservatives are (of course) ensconced with 59.5%. In the Prairies, the Liberals and NDP are straddling the 20% mark, while the Tories are strongly ahead. And in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives have moved into first with 32.7%, while the Liberals are at 32.1%. The NDP seems to be falling away. No movements here were outside of the MOE.

Finally, the cities. The only movement that is over and above the MOE is in Vancouver, where the Liberals have gained 10 points. This seems to have been a major source of their move into first place in the province. The Liberals and Tories are vying for top spot in the city.

In Toronto, the Liberals have a 10-point lead, while in Ottawa the Conservatives have a 20-point lead. The Bloc is doing well in and around Montreal, but oddly the NDP is doing worse here than in the province as a whole.

The Conservatives would win 63 seats out West, 41 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 121.

The Liberals are not far behind with 19 out West, 53 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 104.

The NDP wins 13 seats out West, 12 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 4 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 31. With the Liberals, they would outnumber the Conservatives.

The Bloc wins 52 seats, thanks to the weakness of the Liberals and Tories. The Greens are shut out.

This poll demonstrates a few things. First, that Ipsos-Reid poll suffered from the MOE. Second, there hasn't been much of a change anywhere. The race to watch, though, could be in British Columbia.

New Angus-Reid Poll: 4-pt Conservative Lead

Boy, sometimes I can really sense the urgency of the news cycle. Those journalists have it rough! This Angus-Reid poll landed in my inbox only 130 minutes ago, but already people are talking about it on this blog, the Twitterverse is already past it, and now we're just waiting for Harris-Decima to post the results of their poll. Sheesh! I just wanted to have lunch and had some work stuff to deal with!Compared to their February 11-13 poll, the Conservatives are up one point (33%), the Liberals are down one (29%), and the NDP is up two. They are at 20%, which is generally their ceiling but always good news for them.

The Bloc is stable nationally and the Greens are down one.

This is more in line with what we've been seeing, especially considering the HD poll today. But, these results are within Ipsos-Reid's MOE, so maybe we just need to chalk up the big gap in that poll to that.

In Ontario, the NDP is up five points and is at an amazing 22%. It actually causes them to hit their seat ceiling in my projection. The Conservatives are down three and the Liberals are down two.

In Quebec, the Bloc is down one to 34%. They seem to poll lower in Angus-Reid polls. The Liberals give five points to the Conservatives (23% and 19%, respectively), while the NDP is up two.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives drop three points to 33%, the Liberals gain seven points to tie them, and the NDP gains five points to stand at 25%.

In the smaller regions, of note is the Liberals at 27% in Alberta. That's up nine points, so a huge variation, but part of what we've been seeing in the province. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals drop eleven points (eight of them going to the NDP).

The Conservatives would win 128 seats with this poll: 67 in the West, 43 in Ontario, 9 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals win 18 seats out West, 43 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 17 in Atlantic Canada for 94 seats.

The NDP do very well and win 38 seats: 10 out West, 20 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 6 in Atlantic Canada.

The Bloc manages to hold 48 seats.

The poll also asked people whether the various party leaders should remain as head of their respective parties. You can check out the link to see the numbers, but in general, about 4 out of 5 party supporters like the guy heading their party (88% of Bloc supporters are happy with Duceppe), but for the Liberals that drops to about 3 in 5.

It's odd to think the Stéphane Dion had similarly woeful numbers, but yet Michael Ignatieff seems infinitely safer as party leader. I'm not sure why people have such a problem with Ignatieff, he isn't noticeably better or worse than any of the other leaders. They all sound like sleazy car salesmen some days, and they all sound like likable human beings on other days. Did the Tories succeed in defining him?

New Ipsos Poll: 8-pt Conservative Lead

Ipsos-Reid has released a week-old poll that shows some very different results than those we have been seeing lately.Since their January 19-21 poll, the Conservatives have gained three points (37%), the Liberals have lost two (29%), and the NDP has lost one (16%). The Greens have also lost one and the Bloc is stable, nationally.

Because I saw some premature exaltation in the comments yesterday, I feel the need to point out that the EKOS poll (taken between February 17 and February 23) had a result of 33.4% CPC, 30.3% LPC, 15.8% NDP, while the Environics poll (taken between February 22 and February 24) had a result of 31% CPC, 30% LPC, 16% NDP. As it stands, that puts this Ipsos-Reid poll in the position of having the burden of proof. We need some others to confirm that there has been a sea change.

Anyway, to the regionals.

In Ontario, the Liberals have gained two points and are at a very strong 40%. The Conservatives remain stable at 37%, as do the NDP at 15%.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois gains two points to reach 39%. The Liberals are down five (25%), and both the Conservatives and NDP are up two (17% and 11%, respectively).

Then the MOE comes into play. In British Columbia, the Conservatives are up 11 points to 47%, while the Liberals are down six (18%) and the NDP is down five (22%). Considering how close the race has been in BC since the beginning of the year, these numbers mark a huge change.

There are even bigger changes in the small regions, namely a 13-point loss for the Conservatives in Alberta, a 15-point gain for them in the Prairies (alongside a 20 point loss for the NDP), and a 16-point gain for the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada. The Liberals lose 10 and the NDP loses nine.

When a poll is at odds with others taken at the same time, and shows huge variations like this, we can't help but feel the need to wait for some more corroborating results. This is the problem with releasing polls more than a week after polling stopped - it gives the impression of movement when instead, had it been released a few days after the end of polling, we would have been discussing why the polls are so different from one another.

This poll would give the Conservatives 138 seats, 77 of them in the West, 43 in Ontario, 7 in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals would win 97 seats: 11 of them out West, 52 in Ontario, 16 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada.

The NDP would win 7 out West, 11 in Ontario, 1 in Quebec, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 22.

The Bloc wins 51 seats.

The poll also asked who would make the best Prime Minister. Stephen Harper received 46% (and reached 78% in Alberta), Jack Layton received 33% (53% in Quebec), and Michael Ignatieff had 21% (26% in British Columbia). This seems to demonstrate that people don't vote for leaders.