February Averages

Time to look at February's polling. Twelve national polls were taken during this month (seven more than last month), totalling about 26,060 interviews. Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

Conservatives - 32.8% (+0.4)
Liberals - 30.8% (+0.7)
New Democrats - 16.2% (-0.1)
Greens - 9.8% (-0.1)
Bloc Quebecois - 8.9% (-0.6)

The Conservatives manage a tiny rebound, but it pales in comparison to their 4.4-point loss in January. The Liberals also make a small gain, but this is a gain of almost three points compared to December's result. The NDP hardly moves at all, but they would much prefer to be at around 2008's 18%. The Bloc drops, but it is more important to look at the Quebec number. The Greens drop a little, but it is still a 1.6-point gain since December. It is quite astonishing to see such a close race between the Tories and the Liberals at such a low number.

The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

Conservatives - 121 (-2)
Liberals - 109 (+6)
Bloc Quebecois - 49 (-2)
New Democrats - 29 (-2)
Greens - 0 (unchanged)

Only a loss of two seats for the Conservatives, though they were at 140 seats in December. The Liberals are up six seats, when they were only at 86 seats in December. The NDP is down two more (after being down one in January), while the Bloc is down two after gaining one.The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

BRITISH COLUMBIA (12 polls - about 3,010 people)

Conservatives - 34.3% (+0.8)
Liberals - 26.3% (+0.1)
New Democrats - 24.5% (-0.6)
Greens - 12.7% (-0.3)

The Conservatives manage to tread water and make a small gain, but they are still more than four points lower than their December level. The Liberals remain stable, which is good considering their level of support. The NDP drops a little, but this is a drop of almost two points in two months. The Greens seem to always be taking steps backwards and forwards in this province, losing ground this month.

ALBERTA (11 polls - about 2,270 people)

Conservatives - 54.4% (-0.6)
Liberals - 21.2% (+2.7)
New Democrats - 10.6% (-0.3)
Greens - 10.6% (-0.7)

The Conservatives continue to slip in the province. The Liberals, meanwhile, make a large gain - this trend in Alberta can't be ignored. The NDP broke the Conservative sweep in 2008, and the Liberals look like they will continue to block that sweep in 2010-11. The NDP slips a little, while the Greens slip a little more.

PRAIRIES (11 polls - about 1,650 people)

Conservatives - 47.0% (-0.4)
New Democrats - 21.7% (-1.9)
Liberals - 21.3% (+2.2)
Greens - 8.9% (+0.4)

The Conservatives drop a little, but this is more than five points of losses since December. The Liberals are up, a gain of more than three points in two months. What is going on in the west? The NDP has dropped about two points, erasing their January gains. The Greens are up a point in two months.

In all, the Conservatives take 66 seats in the West. The Liberals win 18 and the NDP win 11.

ONTARIO (12 polls - about 8,740 people)

Liberals - 38.1% (+0.9)
Conservatives - 34.9% (-0.2)
New Democrats - 15.3% (-0.2)
Greens - 10.6% (unchanged)

The Liberals are up almost a point, marking gains of almost four points over the last two months. After losing four points in January, this is a small drop for the Tories, but worrisome for them nevertheless. The same goes for the NDP, who lost one point in January and now another small loss in February. The Greens remain stable.

The Liberals win 53 seats, the Tories win 41, and the NDP takes 12.

QUEBEC (12 polls - about 5,820 people)

Bloc Quebecois - 36.4% (-1.4)
Liberals - 26.5% (+0.9)
Conservatives - 16.4% (+0.5)
New Democrats - 11.0% (-0.9)
Greens - 8.3% (+1.3)

The Bloc takes a relatively large step backwards, but the trend seems to have been that every loss is made-up by a gain the next month. We'll see if that trend holds in March. The Liberals make a decent little gain, up a full point since December. The Conservatives make a small gain, but are still down more than two points since December. The NDP is down, erasing their gains from January, while the Greens are up almost two points since December.

The Bloc wins 49 seats while the Liberals win 18. The Conservatives are reduced to six and the NDP win two.

ATLANTIC CANADA (12 polls - about 1,860 people)

Liberals - 37.5% (+1.7)
Conservatives - 30.9% (+0.9)
New Democrats - 23.1% (-3.2)
Greens - 7.5% (+1.0)

The Liberals are up, marking almost six points of gains since December. The Conservatives make a decent gain, but that is still more than four points of losses in two months. The NDP is down big here, almost six points in all in two months. The Greens are up a little for another month.

The Liberals dominate with 20 seats, while the Conservatives (eight) and NDP (four) split the rest.The Conservatives are starting to re-gain their balance, with gains in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and British Columbia. But they are modest gains when compared to the huge losses they've suffered, and they are still down in Ontario, the Prairies, and Alberta. While those two last regions are still safe, something has to be done in Ontario.

The Liberals continue to make gains, which they have done in every region of the country. They are re-establishing themselves in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada (their bread and butter), and are even making inroads in British Columbia and Alberta. In other words, they are heading in the right direction.

The NDP had a very rough month in February, losing ground in every part of the country. Their large losses in Atlantic Canada and the Prairies are troublesome. They seem to be suffering from the Liberal re-bound as much as the Conservatives have been.

The Bloc sees a drop equal to the gains made by the Liberals and the Conservatives, which is a source of worry for them. But, they still hold a good lead over the Liberals and will be able to take advantage of the Conservative drop.

With a loss in British Columbia and stability in Ontario, the Greens are not closer to electing their first MP.

New EKOS Poll: 2.3-pt Conservative Lead

Another EKOS poll shows the major parties are as limp as (insert your own off-colour joke).Compared to EKOS's poll last week, this marks a loss of 0.5 points for the Conservatives (31.9%), a 0.2 point gain for the Liberals (29.6%), a 0.8 point gain for the NDP (16.0%), and a 0.5 point gain for the Greens (11.0%). Nationally, the Bloc is down 0.3 points (9.1%). The other parties get 2.4%. The margin of error is 2.0.

These are weak numbers for both the Liberals and the Tories, and even the NDP. No party would go to an election with any certainty with these kinds of numbers. While all changes are within the MOE, this does indicate that the Conservatives are just as road-blocked as the Liberals. As the EKOS analysis says, the budget hasn't budged the numbers.

In Ontario, the Liberals have a weak lead with 35.2% to the Conservatives' 33.4%. The NDP is at 17.9%, up about four points (MOE 3.5). A good result for them.

In Quebec, the Bloc is still comfortably ahead with 36.5%. The Liberals are up five points to 27.4% (MOE 4.3). The Conservatives remain stagnant at 16.0%.

In British Columbia, the Tories make a big jump of about seven points to reach 36.4% (MOE 5.4). The Liberals lose those seven points, and are at 21.9%. They still hold a lead over the NDP at 21.2%.

No variations in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada are larger than the MOE, but in Alberta the Conservatives have dropped 10 points (MOE 6.3) to 50.2% while the NDP is up 8 to 13.0%. The Liberals continue to show strength with 21.9%.

No changes in the cities are larger than the MOE, which ranges between 6.5 and 9.0. But, the Conservatives have the lead in Vancouver and Ottawa, while the Liberals are well ahead in Toronto and making a race of it with the Bloc in Montreal.

The Conservatives would win 68 seats in the West, 39 in Ontario, 6 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 122.

The Liberals win 18 in the West, 50 in Ontario, 19 in Quebec, and 20 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 107.

The Bloc wins 50 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 9 in the West, 17 in Ontario, and 3 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 29.

This minority would be weaker than the one Stephen Harper won in 2006. So, who knows what kind of government would come out of it.

A boring poll that confirms a less boring reality: it's a close race, but no one is showing any real strength.

New HD Poll: 4-pt Conservative Lead

Harris-Decima has a new poll out, without any major surprises. But it does show some Conservative strength.Compared to Harris-Decima's last poll taken at the end of February, this is a two point gain for the Conservatives (33%) and a two point loss for the Liberals (29%). The NDP is steady at 16%, the Bloc gains two points (10%) and the Greens lose one point (11%). Note that the margin of error is 1.8%.

Also note that this poll straddles the last poll a little bit. That last poll was taken between February 18 and February 28, while this one was taken between February 25 and March 7. I've reduced the weight of this poll accordingly, as it is already partly represented by the older poll.

The Liberals lead with 39% in Ontario, a good number for them. The Conservatives are at 35%, so still in striking distance. The NDP is weak with 14%.

The Bloc shows a big eight-point bounce (MOE is 3.6) and stands at 44%, one of their better results in a long time. The Liberals poll at half that strength, with 22%. The Conservatives are also hurting at 15%.

The Tories are still showing some trouble in British Columbia with 35%, while the NDP is steady with 25%. The Liberals have dropped nine points (MOE 5.2) to 21%.

All variations in Alberta and the Prairies are within the MOE, but in Atlantic Canada (MOE 5.6) the Liberals have dropped eight points to 34% and the Conservatives have gained nine (30%).

The Conservatives win 68 seats out West, 41 in Ontario, 5 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 123.

The Liberals win 14 out West, 54 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 100. Poor performances in BC and Quebec hurt them in this poll.

The Bloc wins 54 seats in Quebec, matching their all-time best.

The NDP wins 13 in the West, 11 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 5 in Atlantic Canada for a total of 31.

Nothing really new in this poll, though it does show a potentially volatile British Columbia. Liberal strength (relatively speaking) continues in Alberta, and they are still showing great numbers in Ontario. But the Tories are not going away in that province.

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On another note, I recommend you read Manon Cornellier's piece in today's Le Devoir about the government's budget strategy. If you can't read French, Google Translator may help you. Cornellier is one of the more under-rated political pundits in the country. Her pieces are always very detailed and focus more on substance than most pundits do today. Le Devoir also seems to give her more space on the page than the Don Martins, Jim Traverses, and Chantal Héberts of the media world. She really deserves a look.

Projection Update: 128 CPC, 100 LPC, 51 BQ, 29 NDP

The latest projection update doesn't show much movement, but is important nevertheless.Why? With the Conservatives dropping one seat and the Liberals gaining one seat, the spread is now 28 seats. And the NDP has 29. This bumps the projection into an Unstable Conservative Minority, as only the second and fourth parties are required to out-vote the government.

The Conservatives have lost 0.3 points nationally and are down to 33.5%, while the Liberals have gained 0.1 points and are up to 29.4%. It seems that the gains and losses are slowing for these two parties. The NDP is steady at 16.2%, while the Bloc drops 0.1 point to 9.3% and the Greens gain 0.1 point to reach the psychologically significant level of 10%.

Let's look at the changes region by region.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have lost one seat and 0.1 points, down to 36%. The Liberals gain a seat and 0.2 points, and stand at 36.4%. The NDP also gains 0.1 points while the Greens lose 0.2.

In Quebec, the Bloc is down 0.1 points but still well ahead at 37.9%. The Liberals have lost 0.2 points in the province (their only loss anywhere in the country) and are down to 25.0%. The Conservatives are steady, while the NDP picks up 0.1 points and the Greens pick up 0.2 points.

British Columbia shows the most significant movement, with the Conservatives dropping half a point to 35.8%. The NDP gains 0.1 points and keeps a narrow lead over the Liberals with 25.8%. The Liberals gain 0.4 points and stand at 25.3%. The Greens are down 0.2 points in the province.

In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have gained 0.2 points to reach 36.9%. The Conservatives are down 0.1 points and are at 31.2%. The NDP is down 0.3 points to 24.2%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives continue to slide with a loss of 0.2 points. With 59%, however, they still have a commanding lead. The Liberals continue to impress with a gain of 0.4 points and are now at 17.6%. The NDP is down 0.3 points and the Greens are up 0.1.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives are down 0.2 points to 47.5% - still well ahead of the NDP who have lost 0.2 points and are at 23.5%. The Liberals gain 0.1 and the Greens gain 0.3.

Finally, in the North, the Conservatives drop 0.1 points.

This was a bad two weeks for the government, as they have dropped in every region of the country except Quebec, where they remained stable. A 0.5-point loss in British Columbia is very bad news for the party.

The Liberals had a good two weeks, posting large 0.4-point gains in British Columbia and Alberta. They've also opened up a tiny lead in Ontario, but their loss of ground in Quebec is troublesome.

The NDP did not have a very good time, posting minute gains in BC, Ontario, and Quebec but 0.3-point losses in Atlantic Canada and Alberta. However, unlike the Liberals and the Conservatives, the NDP is never down or up throughout the country.

The Bloc only dropped 0.1 points, which seems to be the norm. They are stuck at around 38%.